A Quick Recap of our 2009 Strategy
Although global markets were falling into the abyss a year ago, we adopted a glass-half-full strategy for 2009, as we felt markets were pricing apocalyptic scenarios. With risk premia near record highs, the equity risk reward outlook was indeed very compelling a year ago. Getting confidence from our ISM model, we recommended investors add risky assets (equities, emerging markets, corporate bonds) and overweight cyclical sectors as ISM indices and employment data went from worse to bad. The worst of the global recession came in the first quarter of 2009 and economic activity has been improving since then. Our cyclical bias was maximized in June following the S&P 500 “golden cross” (50-day MA crossing the 200-day line). 2009 was a horrible year for the global economy, but equity markets managed to post solid performances, further illustrating how markets feed off anticipation, not what is written in the daily newspapers.
Read the full research report outlining portfolio strategy for 2010
You must log in to post a comment.